Another Tea Party Defeat - Global Warming

It wasn't long ago that the concern about global warming in the US was in steep decline.  Noam Chomsky often lamented this.  Apparently the Chamber of Commerce, in conjunction with the American Petroleum Instituted, publicly announced that they had learned valuable lessons from Obama's health care PR efforts, and they intended to use these lessons to shift public opinion on global warming.  As the link above shows, it worked.  As the scientific consensus became more and more solid that global warming was happening, was caused by man, and posed a serious threat to our future, Americans at the same time were becoming less convinced.  Propaganda works.

But that seems to be changing.  Check the results of recent polling discussed here.  Even the red states are getting it, with strong majorities recognizing that the above mentioned scientific consensus is true.

The right wing is always wrong, and always wrong in the same direction.  Helping the rich get richer and imposing the costs on the poor.  On a lot of issues the public isn't buying it despite the intense propaganda.

Checking In on California and France

Chad had told us California was a disaster. Well, it's been a few months.  How bad is it?  Pretty much as good as you could hope for.  And as Bill Maher discusses here on a rant about how things are great in places where the tea party gets booted, single payer could come next in California.  If so it will be an enormous success.  We know that already.  And then maybe we can debunk the rest of the errors on the right.  Among the most urgent: global warming.

What about France?  S&P has downgraded them, and one might be tempted to think that's a sign that they aren't performing well.  As Krugman explains here though that's really not true.

The American people seem to be learning a bit.  The tea party took it on the chin last Tuesday, and that was good news for Social Security.  These are good signs.  I'd read recently that research shows that when people are confronted with evidence that contradicts their beliefs (for instance the right wing being wrong all the time) the initial reaction is to dig in and hold to the erroneous opinions even tighter.  But then, over time, opinions can start to change as more and more evidence accumulates.  The evidence is always against them.  They're hostile to facts and science.  But with time these things can be beaten back.

Push Back on Social Security

The rousing defeat of the Republicans may lead to some dividends.  Emboldened Democrats are pushing back on the right wing nonsense that we need to be cutting Social Security benefits.  Not only should we not be talking about scaling Social Security back.  We should be expanding it.

Unfortunately we don't even have Obama on our side on this one, but it's the right policy.  We need to continue to beat back the lies of the right wing propaganda machine that wants to end it because they believe it will improve their profits.  They want the elderly to be compelled to stay in the work force.  This enlarged pool of laborers can drive the cost of labor down.  They want access to any monies you could be putting away for your retirement.  They can run mutual funds and extract fees, maybe crash the economy and get some bail out money in the process.

It's important to recognize that Social Security is a lot like what humans have been doing for thousands of years.  When people became elderly in Native American societies the young understood that they had to do what was necessary to provide for them.  When they shared the fruits of their labor with the elderly that were unable to work they weren't enlarging their share of wealth.  They were simply giving away what they had worked for.  They knew that when they became elderly the young would support them.  And this is why we pay today.  It's not a savings plan.  It's based on the principle that we take care of those that can't care for themselves.  And we know that one day we will be in that boat.

There's a pretty decent debunking of a lot of right wing myths about Social Security here.  It's worth checking out.

The Logic of Stupid Poor People

In the same vein as my prior post that talked about how the criticism from the wealthy on the habits of the poor, check this superb essay on the supposedly irrational financial decisions of the poor, how they spend too much on cars, too much on their hair, too much on makeup.  There's something about actually living the life of a poor person and figuring out how to do what it takes to get by that sometimes leads a poor person to skip a meal just to be able to afford nicer clothes.  Maybe they know something that we who live comfortable lives don't about what it takes to survive in poverty.

Obama Care and the Entrepreneur/Early Retiree

Mr. Money Mustache has an interesting post on the effects of Obama Care on his budget.  Setting aside whether you think Obama Care is right or wrong you have to admit that if you are considering taking a financial risk as an entrepreneur or considering starting retirement early you are going to be pleased.  MMM retired at 30 on an income of about $25K/yr which he's able to draw from his savings using what is known as the 4% rule.  If you draw no more than 4% of your savings it is expected the money would last you forever.  If you think you'd need $25K you'd need to save $625K.  He gave himself a bit of a cushion and saved $800K.  He'd eliminated his mortgage debt, so that's a big help towards a goal of lower income needs.  And with more time available he's able to cook, ride his bike, and do other things the time strapped sometimes struggle with and this allows him to survive on little.

He had a high deductible health care plan prior to Obama Care.  But now if he had continued to have an income of $25K/yr in Colorado his plan would be completely subsidized.  Turns out he's making money from his website and other things, so he's earning too much to qualify for a subsidy, but others that plan to retire early in the way he did when he was 30 would be all set.

This is a truly freedom enhancing prospect for a lot of people.  Years back I'd mentioned in a comment that I always thought it would be kind of cool to hike the Appalachian Trail.  But that's a several month long project.  You'd have to either go without health insurance or buy a plan yourself, which of course is expensive.  And if you had a hard time getting another job after finishing you could deplete the savings.  It wouldn't have been impossible for a guy like me, but this makes it easier.

As some commentators might point out, you can hike the Appalachian Trail and work for yourself.  While that is true starting out in that way though is financially risky.  If it works out and you're making plenty of money, then great.  If not then you now have to deal with the insurance problem once again.  Obama Care basically says that if your business venture fails you still have health care without breaking the bank.  That's pretty cool.

I suppose you don't want to be residing in any of the 26 states that are refusing Medicaid expansion.  So if you early retire choose your place of residence carefully.

Quote of the Day

Republicans Lose in Route

Well, it's a bad day for the Tea Party.  I think all sides can agree that this whole thing has not worked out well for them.  Not only did they get nothing in terms of concessions with the shut down strategy.  They now have The Chamber of Commerce and other business groups ready to resist them.  Still, as I explained in my prior post, there's a logic to this madness.  Obama Care success is a catastrophe for them.  They'll lash out wildly to stop it, even harming the small businesses they pretend to care about in order to stop it.  So sure, this was a hail Mary pass, and they probably understood early that this was a long shot, but they had to try something.  They've been saying, as Rich Lowry mentions here, that after Oct 1 Obama Care is going to be virtually unrepealable.  That's true because it will be an improvement.  People that previously had few options now have options.  They aren't going to want to give them up.

I'd written my Congressman and I just want to post that here to preserve it.  I start with his initial response to something I wrote to him on his website, which I don't have a copy of.  My reply to that is further down.  Whatever you think of Obama Care, I think you have to be unimpressed with my tea party Congressman as he bases his actions on totally misleading and bad arguments.  He complains that Obama Care leaves too many people without coverage.  He complains that under Obama Care health care costs are going up.  And so he actually voted against this recent bill that re-opened government on this basis, even though the system he fights for leaves more people uninsured, costs more, and raises the deficit even more.  It's really quite bizarre.  He needs a few facts injected in his mind, so I thought I'd help.  Perhaps this will further entrench him in his Tea Party ways, as this research indicates often happens.  But as also indicated at that link, truth in the face of repeated error can have an effect eventually.  I'll do my part.

Dear (Jon)

Thank you for taking the time to contact me, and for sharing your concerns over the government shut-down. We need to keep the government open.  I have voted “yes” on two different continuing resolutions to fund the government for the upcoming fiscal year.

Fortunately, all members of Congress from both parties did come together in agreement that no matter what happens, our service members must receive their paychecks—shut-down or no. That is why the House of Representatives unanimously voted in favor of the Pay Our Troops Act. This bill is a free-standing measure promising military members, some federal civilian personnel, and some federal contractors their pay even if funds for other government operations expire. Our soldiers, sailors, and airmen are not political pawns to be toyed with between the House, Senate, and White House.

That said, the main point of contention between the House and Senate is the implementation of ObamaCare. The bottom line is, no matter what any politician from either party will say about the other, the only way a shut-down can occur is if neither side is willing to compromise—or, one side won’t compromise and the other side won’t entirely give in.  And in this respect, the President and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have both made clear that no compromise is acceptable to them.  “I will not negotiate on anything,” the President said.

That is unreasonable.

Unfortunately, Obama’s Affordable Care Act won’t get anywhere near granting universal insurance coverage to every American. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that after full implementation, 30 million of our fellow citizens will still be without insurance. In both the for-profit and non-profit sectors, we are seeing people lose their coverage. Recently UPS announced that they would no longer offer spousal insurance to their employees and the University of Virginia declared major changes to their healthcare benefits. Both explicitly cited the healthcare reform law as the reason for these changes. Other companies from Home Depot to Sea World to Trader Joes are doing the same. Employees in all sectors of our society are seeing their insurance be changed for the worse because of Obamacare.

Moreover, news outlets recently reported that the Affordable Care Act’s program to help those with preexisting conditions has failed. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has announced that it has run out of money to enroll any more individuals in the program. In response, it is blocking states from accepting any more applications to help those who need it. The White House has yet to offer a solution to this problem. Moreover, the technology that is needed for ObamaCare to function properly is still not ready to go.

This year, the Government Accountability Office reported that the healthcare bill adds $6.2 trillion to our long-term deficits. The additional personal costs to every American citizen are even more startling. President Obama promised a reduction of the average family premium by $2,500. The reality of the past two years is this: In 2010, the Kaiser Health Foundation reported the average family’s premium to be $13,770. In 2012, the number went to $15,745, almost a $2,000 increase. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Michiganders should expect their premiums to increase between 35% and 65%.

The American people want change. I am ready to work with any member of Congress who is looking for solutions to out-of-control costs that keep America at the cutting edge of medical innovation. I also do not want to shut down the government. That is why I have supported two different continuing resolutions to fund the government.

Thank you again for sharing your thoughts with me regarding the debate over the continuing resolution and the government shut-down. Please contact me about this or any other issue as it develops.  It is an honor to represent Michigan’s 11th district in Congress.

Sincerely,

Kerry Bentivolio

Member of Congress

KB/cp

Mr Bentivolio,

Your response is very disappointing because it expresses several very misleading rhetorical points.  I’m not saying this is your doing.  I’m sure these are ideas that are expressed in strategy meetings, but if we look closely at the claims we can see how unreasonable they are.

The key is to recognize that this is a choice between alternatives.  So for instance you point out that Obama Care increases the deficit.  What you fail to mention is that the prior system, the system you are fighting to save, increases the deficit even more, which is why repealing Obama Care increases the deficit.  You say that Obama Care leaves 30 million without insurance.  The prior system left nearly 50 million without insurance.  You say under Obama Care health care costs are up $2,000 in 2012.  What amount would they have gone up under the prior system?  We all know they’ve been going up astronomically and unsustainably prior to Obama Care.  Kaiser, the same source you cite regarding costs, further points out that this increase is modest as compared to the last 10 years.  Meaning costs are lower than they would have been without Obama Care.  I think it’s highly misleading to portray these as negatives when they are all reflecting much better results than the system you are fighting for.

I’m glad you think military personnel should be paid, but what about people at our national parks?  What about scientists doing research.  What about NASA workers?  Don’t they also have families and bills that need to be paid?  I am an engineer and I have contact with former NASA employees.  Brilliant people who take reduced wages because of the passion for the work.  We’re sticking it to them, all to return to a health care system that is nothing to get excited about.  It would be one thing if you were fighting for a system that cost half as much and produced better outcomes, like the systems that exist throughout the rest of the industrialized world.  But instead you’re fighting for a system that costs twice as much per capita and leaves the poor with few options.  The ones the end up pursuing (ER visits) are about as inefficient as you can get.

I understand that in politics people use whatever methods they have available to them.  Republicans can refuse to pass a budget.  That’s a tool in their tool kit.  But it seems the strategy is to cause so much pain that Obama and the Democrats will finally become so disgusted they’ll back down on duly passed laws that they regard as their signature achievement.  Do you think this reflects well on you and your party?  This is hurting small businesses, such as small restaurants and shops that operate near National Parks.  We’ve lost monitoring capability for our environment, which is now prey to people that might pollute to save money and improve profit.  People that work in the public sector maybe can’t pay their bills, and this threatens an economy in recovery.  This is happening because Republicans have been unable to win through the electoral process.  Passing laws.  Their last resort is pain for everyone.  This makes sense to you?  If Obama Care is as terrible as you believe it will be then you’ll get voters to support you in the future and repeal it.  The pain and harm being done here is not worth a return to our prior system.  Even if you think Obama Care is bad and our prior system is better, you can’t regard it as so much better that it’s worth this much misery.

Regards,